“If it weren’t for the massive vaccinations we would have five times more infections daily and ten times more deaths”Affirm the virologists, convinced that the crisis of the coronavirus pandemic in the middle of the Italian summer seems to have entered a plateau that in recent weeks oscillates around seven thousand infected daily.
A study had predicted 30,000 cases every 24 hours by the end of this month, which is only eight days away.
The second summer fighting the Covid-19 plague was expected quiet, but the Indian variant named Delta has frozen optimism. The only instrument to combat it has proven effective: mass vaccination. Almost 37 million Italians have received full immunization, 67.20% of the population over 12 years of age.
The surprise Delta is being stopped, but the alarm does not stop. The variant discovered in India in August 2020 has become dominant in many countries. In Italy leads with more than 93%. In Great Britain and Israel, the two champion countries of vaccinations had decreed farewell days to the nightmare in July but have suffered severe tests.
Great Britain indicates 30 thousand daily cases and more than one hundred deaths. Israel exceeded seven thousand cases although it has already reached 12% of the population vaccinated with three doses, at the forefront in the world, and more than 60% immunized with two doses.
Also Israel and Great Britain, realistically, have been saved thanks to the effectiveness of mass vaccination. But Delta showed how dangerous it is. The need to tame it represents a lesson for many countries of the world, which try to contain it. Also USA it is being subjected to the expansive flares of the Indian variant.
In Italy the strategy of the end of summer is being prepared, when it was believed that the conditions were optimal to avoid the fourth wave. As last year the best conditions had been met: the summer climate favors open spaces and makes environments more difficult for respiratory viruses. In addition, the vaccination campaign it reached the peak of 550 thousand vaccinations a day.
But the rapid immunization has not been completed. And the Delta variant arrived in July, which has multiplied infections. That there are many more than the official statistics say. Some mathematical specialists calculate that Delta is extremely easily contagious (5 or 10 seconds is enough) and that its penetration in young people is enormous.
First in the 12-19 age group, which descends to the 0-10 age level, encompassing millions of adolescents, children and even babies.
Fortunately Delta is tamed by vaccines. Protection protects the vast majority of people from contagion, reduces the severity when the disease breaks out, reduces hospital admissions by up to 85% and fatal outcomes by more than 90%.
The infectologist Massimo Galli, the University of Milan, points out that Delta “Manufactures” with its infections many young people and asymptomatic children, they feel little and no symptoms, but are powerful super-spreaders of infections.
After a first phase of expansion of infections among young people and children, the percentages are decreasing. In contrast, infections rise among those over 30 years of age. The vast majority of those infected are unvaccinated.
But there is a minority of immunized people who are infected. The virologist Fabrizio Pregliasco affirmed that “in the autumn a double pandemic will be consolidated in hospitals: the one that will suffer less serious in its effects a minority of immunized and the plague that will make a strong impact on the unvaccinated, especially the elderly and frail patients.
A warlike panorama against those who shy away from the vaccine and who help spread the virus is increasingly outlined. The “no vacs” with their largely delusional campaigns, which denounce conspiracies of the government and others with the weapon of vaccines.
In the Italian press there are cases of “no vacs” that showed their contempt for those vaccinated and now they ask for forgiveness from their hospital beds, after being infected.
But more than the “no vacs” the big problem is represented by those who shy away from vaccination for fear of the effects of vaccines, indifference or simple ignorance. There is concentrated a total of at least six or seven million people.
The health passport
The implementation of the Health Passport that indicates vaccinations continues to be extended to all activities. This Sunday the fans had to present it in the stadiums.
Classes will start in two weeks and the 200 thousand teachers and teachers who have not been vaccinated in schools will be suspended if they persist in their rebellion. Anti-vaccine doctors and nurses are also being suspended.
Summer has helped to ease the mystical fury of mass vaccinations. Of 550 thousand daily inoculations in hundreds of centers, the last week it has dropped to just over 200 thousand.
The alarm for this danger was marked by the President of the Republic Sergio Matarella who in a speech sentenced: “Vaccination is a must, the only effective instrument ”. Until now getting vaccinated was everyone’s right, they wanted to avoid the plain and simple obligation.
Now the climate has changed. The need to combat the Delta variant is imperative because before its arrival it was estimated that it was enough to inoculate 70% of Italians to insure the 60 million inhabitants.
Not now. Italian scientists agree that Delta’s contagion power has blown up the “herd immunity” calculations necessary to protect the entire population. Some estimate that 80% of those vaccinated are now necessary, others 90%. And there is no shortage of those who point out that it will not be possible to transmit immunity, that everyone must be inoculated.
Professor Giorgio Palú, president of the Italian Institute of Pharmaceuticals, announced that two specific viral drugs will arrive in Italy in October. “They are inhibitors that will serve directly for the cure in the acute phase.” They will allow the cure of patients in their homes, relieving hospitals.
Palú said that “there is no pandemic that lasts more than two years because the virus tries to adapt to its host to survive”. “It will continue to be very contagious but much less lethal, it will become endemic, similar to the flu. What most favorably influences this fate is mass vaccination and general immunization ”.
In October, in addition to the drugs, Italy would launch the third dose to reinforce immunization of the elderly and frail patients. It is also promised to specify when the vaccination of those who have already completed one year since they received the first two doses that immunized them will begin. These inoculations must be repeated annually.